The Open Source World in 2020

geschrieben von Stefan Meretz am 22. August 2008, 21:32 Uhr

Stefan Merten, founder of Oekonux [1] project, is going to give a presentation at FrOSCon [2] — the Free and Open Source Conference in Sankt Augustin, Germany, 23th – 24th of august. The presentation titled »The (Open Source) World in 2020 — A History Based Look into the Future« [3] is already online [4]. Stefan’s style is to cut down complex analysis to handy statements, where he draws his conclusions from.

Here are the conclusions giving a good overview of the talk:

  • 1984 — Very beginnings may be hard to notice
  • 1996 — Good ideas grow because they are useful to people
  • 2008 — Basic principles are strong enough to spread out
  • First basic principle: Selbstentfaltung — Something what individual and society wants
  • Second basic principle: Openness — Technology may make way for new societal phenomenons
  • A new mode of production emerges — Something wrong with classic economy 😉
  • Power from new principles — Oekonux thesis: New mode of production => new society
  • Five-step model of development — There is hope!
  • Capitalism as a successful germ form: 200 years back — A new mode of production as a germ form can take over
  • A peek into the future — Vertical expansion is quite sure — Horizontal expansion depends on many aspects
  • Deeper embedding — More won’t happen in 12 years

Please read the details [3] (aka bullet points).

Conclusion of the conclusions of the bullet point list: Qualitatively, in 2020 we have the same situation as in 2008.

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[1] Oekonux:

[2] FrOSCon:

[3] »The (Open Source) World in 2020 — A History Based Look into the Future«:

[4] online:

[5] :

[6] :

[7] :

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